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000 FXUS64 KFWD 102324 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 524 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010 .AVIATION... DRYLINE IS EAST OF THE KDFW AND KACT TRACONS. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING FOR THE EVENING 00-02Z. AN AREA OF DUST IS VISIBLE ON VIS AND 11-3.9 MICRON LOOPS. DOUBT IF KDFW TRACON VIS WILL FALL...BUT IT SHOULD REDUCE SLANT-RANGE VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH END OF THIS TAF. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST TONIGHT AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 12 KTS OR LESS...ONCE THEY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF BKN- OVC090 WILL SPREAD OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS THE 500MB COLD CORE MOVES ON THE REGION. WE MAY HAVE TO ADDED HIGH-BASE TSRA TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010/ ACTIVE DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR SURE. DRY LINE HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST...AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS WELL. HAVE LOCALLY EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 5 PM FOR AREAS WISH ONGOING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE SEVERE RISK TO BE TO THE EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY NIGHTFALL. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY 6 PM OR SO AS WELL...AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHES NORTH TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLOWER. HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LARGE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR FORECAST SCENARIOS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TIDBIT OF THE DAY: WHILE THE TEMPERATURE DID RISE INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE NOW AT 141 STRAIGHT DAYS BELOW 80 DEGREES. THIS PUT US IN A TIE FOR 7TH PLACE ALL TIME AT DFW...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SEVEN MORE DAYS BELOW 80. 14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 44 67 42 63 41 / 5 10 20 10 10 WACO, TX 41 69 43 67 41 / 5 10 10 10 5 PARIS, TX 43 66 41 59 39 / 5 10 20 20 10 DENTON, TX 40 65 40 63 39 / 5 10 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 40 66 40 62 37 / 5 10 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 46 66 44 64 41 / 5 10 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 43 68 42 62 40 / 5 10 20 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 45 69 43 66 41 / 5 10 10 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 40 69 42 68 41 / 5 10 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092- 100>103-115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-100>103- 115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157. && $$