Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KFWD 010442 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

85/NH

&&

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS DIMINISHED AND HAVE TAKEN THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

LATEST 18Z MAV GUIDANCE NOW HAS HIGHS TOMORROW A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER /108 AT DFW AND 104 AT WACO/. 850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TOMORROW BUT THAT ONLY SUGGEST AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM OUR HIGH TODAY OF 102. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES. IF HIGHS DO REACH 105 OR
GREATER...THE ONLY LOCATIONS WHICH MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD
BE TARRANT AND DALLAS COUNTY...AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GREATER THAN 78 DEGREES. WITH THE DRY SURFACE AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
70S. EVEN IF HIGHS/HEAT INDICES REACH 105 TOMORROW... TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR MONDAY AND AN ADVISORY WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF 100 DEGREE WEATHER WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

85/NH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/
STILL APPEARS A ROGUE SHOWER MAY OCCUR NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH
SUNSET WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...BUT WILL KEEP 10 POP FORECAST
AND MONITOR FOR ANY INSERT NEED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION BEFORE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE HOT FORECAST REMAINS IMMINENT NOW FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS...AS
BROAD BERMUDA HIGH ALOFT FLUCTUATES OFF AND ON OVER THE REGION. PER
EMPIRICAL/ADVECTION FORECASTS REGARDING EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AT
850 MB...AS WELL AS EXPECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEING PRETTY
LARGE WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW...IT APPEARS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTER PERIODS AT THIS TIME...WITH LOWS 75-80 DEG F
AND HIGHS 102-105 DEG F. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH MIXING TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEW PTS AS OF 2 PM...BUT THINGS LOOK TO HAVE SETTLED IN WITH
REGARDS TO HEAT INDICES/HUMIDITY VALUES AT/BELOW 30 PERCENT. ERN
COUNTIES ARE SITTING AT HI`S 102-104 DEG F WHERE HUMIDITY IS MORE
35-40 PERCENT.

ALL SAID...IT`S HOT...BUT NOT VERY HUMID WITH THE MIXING. D/FW
AND WACO WILL ONLY BE 2-3 DEGREES SHY OF RECORD OF HIGHS 106 DEG F
SUNDAY AND 107 DEG F MON-TUES FOR D/FW...WITH RECORD HIGHS NOTED AT
WACO BEING 106 DEG F SUN-MON AND 107 DEG F TUES. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...WE BELIEVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT/SPS IS MORE WARRANTED THAN
AN OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY/NPW PER CRITERIA...DEEP MIXING OF DRY SSW
ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL SEEM TO ANCHOR OVER THE ARKLATEX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASING BY TUES/BEYOND...WHICH SHOULD LEND TO A BETTER BREEZE
ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP SYSTEMS AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL AWAY FROM
NORTH TX. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM FOR FAR E/SE COUNTIES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL 10 POPS THOSE
AREAS AND WAIT FOR BETTER INDICATIONS FROM MODELS ON ANY FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. MAIN THEME WILL REMAIN
THE HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT WITH HIGHS HOVERING IN THE 99-103 DEG F RANGE THE WHOLE
WEEK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 104  80 103  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              72 103  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             76 100  76 100  77 /  10   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 105  78 103  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76 103  76 102  76 /   5   5   0   5   0
DALLAS, TX            81 103  80 103  81 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           75 104  77 103  76 /   5   0   0   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         74 104  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            71 102  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76 104  76 102  76 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion