Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
000
FXUS64 KFWD 072321
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW PER SOUNDINGS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STRONGER TROUGH JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...IS SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
3PM...THE ACTUAL FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM MIDLAND TO
WICHITA FALLS TO OKLAHOMA CITY. HOWEVER...THE REALLY COLD AIR IS
LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. THE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OR LOWER 40S WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SOME CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN
PLACE AND RETURN FLOW NEVER REALLY COMMENCES.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH
TOMORROW. IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SHEARED APART AND WEAKENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM.
AT THE SAME TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...THE MAIN
POLAR LOW WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN CANADA FOR MOST
OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ROTATE SOUTH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
THIS WILL SEND A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORTH TEXAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR...WITH
THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS OUR THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME
MORE AGREEABLE WITH THEIR OUTCOMES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR FREEZING NEAR PARIS AS THE BEST LIFT ARRIVES AND THIS
IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST AIR IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY
WINTER PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION GIVEN
THE COLDEST AIR IS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID-MORNING WHICH WOULD BE JUST AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS ON
DAY 6 AND MANY FACTORS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 51 34 55 39 / 0 0 0 5 20
WACO, TX 38 55 33 56 39 / 0 0 0 5 30
PARIS, TX 34 52 33 53 38 / 0 0 5 10 20
DENTON, TX 33 50 30 53 35 / 0 0 0 5 20
MCKINNEY, TX 34 52 28 52 34 / 0 0 0 5 20
DALLAS, TX 36 51 35 53 42 / 0 0 0 5 20
TERRELL, TX 36 53 33 54 37 / 0 0 0 5 20
CORSICANA, TX 39 55 36 56 40 / 0 0 0 5 20
TEMPLE, TX 37 57 34 57 40 / 0 0 0 10 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 31 50 31 55 39 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
